Intervention or.... Not.

   Regular readers of this blog know that I rarely post about political topics.  I try to avoid politics, as I know that people have varied and strongly held beliefs on the subject.  There is one subject however that I will not stay silent on.  That subject is the potential for missile strikes in Syria.

Let me first state that as a Christian, I am appalled and horrified by what the Asad regime is doing to its civilian population.  He is a butcher and murder plain and simple.  The so-called “rebels” are no better.  They have ties to Al Qaeda the organization responsible for the September 11th attacks in 2001.  Therefore, we are in a Prisoner’s Dilemma of sorts.  Do we assist the Al Qaeda backed rebels, or the murderous regime of Bashir Asad?

My answer is that we give military help to neither side.  We provide humanitarian assistance through charities and the UN to assist the brutalized population of Syria.  I have a high standard by which I evaluate a support of US military intervention overseas.  That standard is: do I believe that the nation or group in question directly threatens the security of the United States?  The Syrian government is certainly a threat to its own population and the Middle East as a larger whole. 

Is Syria looking to invade or commit acts of terror on American soil?  I have not seen or heard any evidence to the contrary.  Using this standard I opposed the Iraq war of 2002, and the Bosnian war of the 1990’s.  I initially supported the Afghanistan war in 2001 because the terrorists who committed the acts of terror on 9/11 were directly supported by the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.  Hence a direct link to a threat to the national security of the US.  In my mind, military intervention was justified for Afghanistan in 2001. At the current moment, I support the immediate withdrawal of all troops from Afghanistan.

Syria is a problem no question.  However, if you look at recent history.  When the US becomes militarily involved in the Middle East, things do not go well.  It is for that reason as well as not seeing a direct link between the Syrian government’s actions and a direct threat to the security and safety of the United States that I oppose a military intervention in Syria of any kind. (Including airstrikes.)  I call on Congress to vote “no” on President Obama’s use of force authorization now making its way through Congress.

Final election 2012 Predictions (Presidential)

I could wait till tommorow morning to do this, but based on the polling and analysis that I have read this weekend I am going to do my projections now. 

It says here that President Obama will be re-elected 50-48% in the national popular vote.  I also belive that Libretarian candidate Gary Johnson will get 1% of the national popular vote.

A few of these states are extremley close and are "best guesses" based on the polling numbers and statisitcal models.  My final predictions in the electoral college are Obama 290 ev's and Romney 248 ev's. President Obama will win re-election by a margin similar to President Bush in 2004.

States Obama will carry: WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, HI, MN, IA, WI, MI, IL, OH, PA, ME, NH, VT, MA, MD, RI, DE, CT, NJ, DC, NY.

States Romney will carry: AK, ID, WY, UT, AZ, ND, SD, NE, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, KY, TN, IN, WV, FL, NC, VA, MT, KS.

The closest states will be CO, NH, VA. possiblyy FL although Romney maintains a slim edge there.  NH goes to Obama based on a small but steady lead of 2 pts.  CO and VA are coin flips.  I could see Obama winning both, but based on the polling in CO which has trended Obama I give that state to him.  VA is the toughest to call.  Obama has been ahead in late polling but short of 50% so I am going with the state's slight reddish lean and call it for Romney.  New Hampshire very tight, but based on the states voting history and slight Democratc lean I will call that for Obama.

http://www.270towin.com/.  Here is a link to how I think the electoral map will shape up come Nov 6th.

Obama is going to win he could get as many as 332 ev's and as few as 277, I split the difference.

Not matter what your political leaning get out and vote tommorow!

All Things Political: Current EV forecast 10/17/12

Toss-Up: CO (9)

Obama: WA(12), OR(7), CA(55), HI(4), NM(5), MN(10), IA(6), WI(10), MI(16), IL(20), OH(18), PA(20), DC(3), MD(10), DE(3), NJ(14), CT(7), RI(4), MA(11), NH(4), VT(3), ME (4), NY(29).  281 EV

Romney: AK(3), ID(4), MT(3), WY(3), UT(6), AZ(11), ND(3), SD(3), NE(5), KS(6), OK(7), TX(38), MO(10), AR(6), LA(8), IN(11), KY(8), TN(11), MS(6), AL(9), GA(16), SC(9), NC(15), VA(13),  WV(5), FL(29). 257 EV

All Things Political: Poll Watch 10/10/2012

National Polls:
Rasmussen: Romney 48 Obama 47
Gallup LV's Obama 48 Romney 48
Gallup RV's Obama 50 Romney 45




Battleground State Polls
Ohio: Obama 46 Romney 42 (JZ Analytics)
Ohio: Obama 45 Romney 44 (Survey USA)
Nevada: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Survey USA)
Pennsylvannia: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Rasmussen)
Wisconsin: Obama 51 Romney 49 (Rasmussen)
New Hampshire: Obama 48 Romney 48 (Rasmussen)
Florida: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Univ of North Florida)

All Things Political: AM Poll Watch 10/9/12

Today's polls: 
National
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 48. 
SEIU/Daily Kos: Romney 49 Obama 47. 
Zogby/Washington Times: Romney 45 Obama 45

State Polls
PA: Obama 43 Romney 40 (Siena)
OH: Romney 48 Obama 47 (ARG)
OH: Obama 45 Romney 44 (Survey USA)
CO: Romney 50 Obama 46 (ARG)
NC: Romney 50 Obama 41 (Gravis)

So Romney is taking the lead in OH and CO, and Obama is clinging to narrow leads in PA and MI (two polls yesterday had him up by 3 there.) If the election were today I think Romney would squeak it out.

As an Obama supporter I am beyond frustrated, this was all preventable.  He needs a change in the narrative otherwise the "Romney comeback, Obama is now toast" story lines will continue to multiply.  I mean good grief Obama had this thing in his pocket and he singularly is choking it away yeesh.  I know that is complaining a bit, I am venting.  Not trying to tear anyone down or call them names.