Final election 2012 Predictions (Presidential)

I could wait till tommorow morning to do this, but based on the polling and analysis that I have read this weekend I am going to do my projections now. 

It says here that President Obama will be re-elected 50-48% in the national popular vote.  I also belive that Libretarian candidate Gary Johnson will get 1% of the national popular vote.

A few of these states are extremley close and are "best guesses" based on the polling numbers and statisitcal models.  My final predictions in the electoral college are Obama 290 ev's and Romney 248 ev's. President Obama will win re-election by a margin similar to President Bush in 2004.

States Obama will carry: WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, HI, MN, IA, WI, MI, IL, OH, PA, ME, NH, VT, MA, MD, RI, DE, CT, NJ, DC, NY.

States Romney will carry: AK, ID, WY, UT, AZ, ND, SD, NE, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, KY, TN, IN, WV, FL, NC, VA, MT, KS.

The closest states will be CO, NH, VA. possiblyy FL although Romney maintains a slim edge there.  NH goes to Obama based on a small but steady lead of 2 pts.  CO and VA are coin flips.  I could see Obama winning both, but based on the polling in CO which has trended Obama I give that state to him.  VA is the toughest to call.  Obama has been ahead in late polling but short of 50% so I am going with the state's slight reddish lean and call it for Romney.  New Hampshire very tight, but based on the states voting history and slight Democratc lean I will call that for Obama.

http://www.270towin.com/.  Here is a link to how I think the electoral map will shape up come Nov 6th.

Obama is going to win he could get as many as 332 ev's and as few as 277, I split the difference.

Not matter what your political leaning get out and vote tommorow!

Big Ten Game Predictions 10/27/12

Northwestern 31 Iowa 21
Indiana 30 Illinois 27
Minnesota 27 Purdue 20
Wisconsin 20 Michigan State 10
Penn State 31 Ohio State 17
Michigan 24 Nebraska 21

Big Ten Game Predictions 10/20/12

Ohio State 41, Purdue 17
Wisconsin 38, Minnesota 20
Northwestern 35, Nebraska 32
Michigan 20, Michigan State 14
Indiana 45, Navy 30
Iowa 21, Penn State 20

All Things Political: Current EV forecast 10/17/12

Toss-Up: CO (9)

Obama: WA(12), OR(7), CA(55), HI(4), NM(5), MN(10), IA(6), WI(10), MI(16), IL(20), OH(18), PA(20), DC(3), MD(10), DE(3), NJ(14), CT(7), RI(4), MA(11), NH(4), VT(3), ME (4), NY(29).  281 EV

Romney: AK(3), ID(4), MT(3), WY(3), UT(6), AZ(11), ND(3), SD(3), NE(5), KS(6), OK(7), TX(38), MO(10), AR(6), LA(8), IN(11), KY(8), TN(11), MS(6), AL(9), GA(16), SC(9), NC(15), VA(13),  WV(5), FL(29). 257 EV

Big Ten Game Predictions 10/13/12

Games on 10/13/12

Michigan State 21 Iowa 14
Northwestern 38 Minnesota 30
Wisconsin 28 Purdue 24
Ohio State 42 Indiana 24
Michigan 41 Illinois 14

All Things Political: Poll Watch 10/10/2012

National Polls:
Rasmussen: Romney 48 Obama 47
Gallup LV's Obama 48 Romney 48
Gallup RV's Obama 50 Romney 45




Battleground State Polls
Ohio: Obama 46 Romney 42 (JZ Analytics)
Ohio: Obama 45 Romney 44 (Survey USA)
Nevada: Obama 47 Romney 46 (Survey USA)
Pennsylvannia: Obama 51 Romney 46 (Rasmussen)
Wisconsin: Obama 51 Romney 49 (Rasmussen)
New Hampshire: Obama 48 Romney 48 (Rasmussen)
Florida: Obama 49 Romney 45 (Univ of North Florida)

He Saved My Life

So you might be asking yourself as you read the tittle of my blog, who is He?  He is Jesus.  He saved my life.  To begin with, I will start with where I was before I asked Christ into my heart.

I spent a good deal of my 20's and early 30's hiding who I really was behind a wall of sarcasm and negativity and isolating myself from people.  I had a few friends, and I dated a few different women.  But I never let anyone get close to me.  As time passed I watch both of my sisters (Jenny and Kayla), get married and start their own families.  Something inside of me started to change.  What I wanted out of life changed.  I just couldn't put my finger on it.  Up until that point I had no real plan for my future.  I never gave any serious thought as to whether I wanted a family.  However, when I saw my sisters married, a seed was planted in my heart.

Even before I became a Christian, I was very fortunate to have parents who made me go through Sunday School and Confirmation.  Even though I wasn't following Christ yet, I was exposed to the Bible and His Word. Many kids growing up nowadays don't even get that exposure. I have also been fortunate to have a mentor in my stepfather Gordon Sauer.  I have known Gordon for 10 years now and it has been through watching him interact with people and his attitude in life that I got to see how a Christian man treats those around him.

So, now that I have provided a bit of background, when was "the moment" that I realized I needed Christ in my life?  May and June of 2011.  I had reached a point where I was so frustrated and scared and lacking direction.  Then, one day I went on a date.  I met Charlie (my future wife).  I was freaking out big time. Part of me really wanted to stay and get to know this woman, and the other part wanted to run and hide and not allow myself to get hurt.  Then one day it hit me.  I couldn't do all this alone anymore.  To sort through all of the anxiety, fear, and confusion that I was feeling in my life, I literally reached a point where I got down on my knees and said "Lord I can't do this by myself anymore."  

I asked Him into my heart and life, to be at the very center of everything that I did, and to make me more like Him.  That day, the Lord saved my life.  He forgave my sins, and also more importantly has always loved me no matter what.  When I realized that He believed in me, I realized it was about time that I did.  He saved me from a life of sin, and aimless wandering.  Even before I came to know Him, he was at work in my life.  Previent Grace. 

Since I have given my life to Christ, how have things changed for me?  I started to break down the walls that I had spent the last twenty years building up.  I decided to give my relationship with Charlie a chance, and open myself up.  I began to reach out to those around me and form closer relationships with them.  I began to let myself be involved in the lives of others; to love and be loved. I found a congregation to become a member of, the church where I grew up, and began to form these relationships again.

Also importantly, through prayer and reading the Bible, as well as conversation with my parents, I came to realize that I had been blaming other people and things for the state of my life.  For example, blaming a co-worker for my anxiety at work and telling myself so and so is making me feel this way.  I came to realize that I am responsible and in control of my thoughts and actions.  This has helped me so much in my self growth.  I pray just about every day that God help me with this.  

God is so full of grace, and love.  He loves mankind so much that he sent His only Son to the Cross so that the debt of sin that originated under Adam could be paid for all of us.  God never gave up on me, even when I was ready to give up on myself.  He kept after me, and after me, until I surrendered my life to Him.

So are things a cakewalk now that I am a Christian?  No.  Do I still struggle? Of course.  Part of being a Christian is to take on some of the suffering that Christ experienced.  When we struggle and are in pain, we are to be thankful because that means the Holy Spirit is working through us and changing us into the person God wants us to be.  It is because of God's love and grace that I, a broken wretched sinner, was forgiven and given new life.  I was reborn.  If any of you reading this blog doubt whether God exists or whether he loves you, I stand here today as living proof.  That the living God loves you and wants you to know him, and know you.  

A final word.  I am getting married in eleven days.  For years I struggled with letting people in and opening myself up to loving someone else and being loved.  I, myself, without Christ, am not capable of having a successful and loving marriage.  It is because of His presence and guidance and the strength He gives me, that on October 20th I will stand in front of family and friends and say "I do", and spend the rest of my life with my best friend, lover and soul mate.  Without my relationship with Christ, I never would have had the courage or strength to get to where I am today.

Intial blog entry, and what's on my mind right now.

  I have been thinking about blogging for the last few weeks.  My fiancee, Charlene, has a few blogs and has been posting a lot over the last week or so.  So a bit about me.  I am 36 years old.  Born in Rochester, New York, raised in Portage Michigan and the Milwaukee area (Elm Grove, Brookfield), in Wisconsin.

So what's going on in my life right now?  Well for starters I am getting married in 11 days to the love of my life, Charlene Grommesh (Charlie to me and our friends).  Perhaps if I keep up with this on a regular basis at a later time I will tell the story of how we met and how we ended up together.  For now, let me say I am full of joy and fear.  Joy that in 11 days I will get to spend the rest of my life with a woman who has become my best friend, and my better half.  She pushes me to be a better person.  I feel blessed by God to have found her.

But like any groom to be I am scared.  Not cold feet.  Just thinking to myself "can I be the kind of Husband that she deserves."  You know stuff like that.  I have a history of low self esteem and anxiety so that plays into this.  I wouldn't be here wanting to move ahead with our life together if deep down I didn't think the answer was yes.  Not sure if that makes sense to anyone but it does to me.

I am also a huge University of Michigan football fan.  I am stoked because, I will be going to the Illinois/UM football game this Saturday in Ann Arbor.  I will be going with my cousin/best man Eric and my Uncle Kip and Aunt Deb.  I haven't been to a game since 2004 so this will be a lot of fun.

Finally, I am an election junkie and Obama supporter.  I am not feeling good about his chances at being re-elected at this moment.  He came into last week's debate with a 5 point national lead and solid leads in the swing states.  As of this morning he is at best a point ahead and losing ground in the states.  All because he couldn't put together a solid showing at that debate last week.

He let Romney get away with repackaging his conservative positions in moderate rhetoric.  If Obama loses this election it will be on him.  Not on hanging chads in Florida.  (Ask me in a day or two and my assessment of his chances may be brighter.)  So you can expect blog entries about sports, politics, my faith and life in general.  One final note:  In the tone of my blog entries, I am going to try to not cut down or make fun of people but try to stay generally positive and hopefully lifting people up.  Hopefully blogging will stoke a creative fire within me, and this will be the first of many pieces to come.  In the mean time here is a picture of my beloved as I call her, isn't she beautiful? (see above.)

All Things Political: AM Poll Watch 10/9/12

Today's polls: 
National
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48 Romney 48. 
SEIU/Daily Kos: Romney 49 Obama 47. 
Zogby/Washington Times: Romney 45 Obama 45

State Polls
PA: Obama 43 Romney 40 (Siena)
OH: Romney 48 Obama 47 (ARG)
OH: Obama 45 Romney 44 (Survey USA)
CO: Romney 50 Obama 46 (ARG)
NC: Romney 50 Obama 41 (Gravis)

So Romney is taking the lead in OH and CO, and Obama is clinging to narrow leads in PA and MI (two polls yesterday had him up by 3 there.) If the election were today I think Romney would squeak it out.

As an Obama supporter I am beyond frustrated, this was all preventable.  He needs a change in the narrative otherwise the "Romney comeback, Obama is now toast" story lines will continue to multiply.  I mean good grief Obama had this thing in his pocket and he singularly is choking it away yeesh.  I know that is complaining a bit, I am venting.  Not trying to tear anyone down or call them names.